Sunday, August 21, 2016

'From Trollope to Trump' -- 2nd of 2 articles on Brexit worth going back to

Niall Ferguson, "From Trollope to Trump" Boston Globe 18 July 2016 https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/07/18/from-trollope-trump/gLkfvfFWqqRiz4zRRRKMTN/story.html.

Ferguson is Oxbridge-educated (I'm not sure which, maybe both), now teaches at Harvard with other gigs at prestige schools and think tanks worldwide. He has a carefully cultivated image as a contrarian and an independent voice -- but his independent voice typically winds up shilling for whomever the Republican Party chooses to nominate for president at a given moment.

Yet he's not enamored of Donald Trump.

Not yet, at least.

But it's still two months to the election. Give him time.

This column explores the common appeal to working-class voters of Brexit in the UK and Trump in the US. Excerpts:

To understand what has just happened in Britain, mystified Americans are advised to read the novels of Anthony Trollope. I especially recommend “Framley Parsonage.’’ There is a wonderful parody there of a Victorian change of government, which dashes the political ambitions of the unscrupulous Harold Smith, briefly elevated to the Petty Bag Office.

Harold Smith has been brought into the Cabinet by Lord Brock, the prime minister, but swiftly falls foul of his jealous friend Mr. Supplehouse, who savages him in an article in the “Jupiter.’’ Then, with breathtaking suddenness, the Brock government is overthrown.

Nothing that happened last week would have astonished Trollope: the suddenness of the fall of Prime Minister David Cameron and the ascent of Theresa May, the despondency of the ousted ministers, and above all the miraculous resurrection of Boris Johnson as foreign secretary.

The fashionable view is that the fall of Cameron, like the rise of Donald Trump, is a symptom of a worldwide populist revolt against the elites — a novel and alarming challenge to the established political order. On closer inspection, this was a political entertainment (think Gilbert & Sullivan) straight out of the early 1860s.

* * *

As November approaches, US voters are going to find themselves in much the same position as their British counterparts found themselves prior to June 24. The face an unappetizing choice: on one side, the familiar but jaded; on the other, the novel but risky. I feel much the same about Hillary Clinton as I do about the European Union, and much the same way about Donald Trump as I do about Brexit.

I was for keeping the UK in the EU, not because I hum the “Ode to Joy” in the bath, but because I thought the Cameron-Osborne government was the best Britain had had in 26 years and did not deserve to be shipwrecked over Europe. At the same time, I wholly disbelieved the arguments of the Brexit camp that the UK would be economically better off out of the EU.

In the case of the United States, I feel no enthusiasm at the prospect of a Clinton presidency. She has already been pushed alarmingly far to the left of Barack Obama by Bernie Sanders’s challenge. Her reputation for honesty and judgment is in … well, whatever comes below tatters.

Yet the alternative seems even worse. I do not share the view that a Trump presidency would be tyranny, undermining the Constitution and eroding the liberties it enshrines. The Constitution was carefully designed to cope with the tendency of democratic electorates to fall for demagogues. But what it cannot do is protect us from terrible policies. Drastic restrictions on immigration, protectionist tariffs, reckless taxing and borrowing — we have seen all these things before in American history, we have seen their unintended costs, and we could see them again if Trump is elected.

Of course, as a member of the elite, I would say that, wouldn’t I? ...

And on he goes. But where he'll stop, I think I know.

'Brexit means Brexit' -- or does it? 1 of 2 columns too good not to come back to

Declan Lynch, "May is heading for the Exit from Brexit," Sunday [Irish] Independent, 21 August 2016 http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/declan-lynch/may-is-heading-for-the-exit-from-brexit-34981939.html.

Lynch, according to Wikipedia, "... dropped out of law school after one year and began writing for the music magazine Hot Press. He did this for a number of years before leaving to work for the Independent." Good on him! He retains some of the breezy style of a pop music writer.

Some excerpts:

[Lede:] Last week they moved it back again, with Theresa May suggesting that the famous Article 50 might not be triggered until late 2017 , an advance on the original procrastination till early 2017. Which would mean that your actual Brexit might be delayed to late 2019.

But there will be no Brexit.

This was clear from the moment that Theresa May declared that "Brexit means Brexit", a statement of such masterful meaninglessness it suggested that the people who run Britain had already regained some of their composure, after being briefly stunned by a blow to the head from the dreaded Joe Public.

* * *

Leaving the EU is more the style of a bunch of geezers on a stag night sticking their heads out the window of a taxi-cab and shouting some xenophobic abuse to anyone who seems to them a bit unusual. That was essentially the spirit of the 'Leave' campaign, and it is just one of the many reasons why the people who run Britain are in no rush to trigger Article 50 or any other Article which would give effect to such barbarian nonsense.

Unfortunately a lot of time and money will have to be wasted now, finding a way not to implement Brexit. Indeed in one not entirely implausible scenario, Britain will not be leaving the EU because there will be no EU any more for Britain to leave.

But this is also a good time in the world for just forgetting about things, for pretending that what happened didn't really happen at all - Trump is running his campaign with this attitude, Trump who actually impersonated a disabled person and just moved on like it was nothing at all.

But it isn't just Trump who doesn't want to be held accountable for anything. No more than the politicians, the people don't want to be held accountable either - certainly many of the people who wanted Brexit have already stated that what happens next is nothing to do with them, mate, while some of them now wish that their referendum win hadn't happened at all.

For them, the consolation is that they haven't won anything yet, nor will they